College Football Conference Expansion is back in the news again with Texas A&M making the move the SEC in a few years. It seems to me that the Big 12 may be a defunct league in a few years if they don’t find a way to keep some of its schools. It’s fun to think about where the other Big 12 teams might go if there is no longer a Big 12. Obviously in order to discuss this we need to make some assumptions. First let’s assume everyone runs from the Big 12 to other conferences. Let’s also assume that conferences will jump to 16 teams. Also let’s assume that Clemson and Florida State will move to the SEC with Texas A&M. (This by the way is a terrible idea for all three schools.)
Ok so in the last two years the Big 12 has lost Nebraska, Colorado, and Texas A&M. Based on the fact that the SEC, Big Ten, and Pac 12 all have 12 or more teams they will be staying around. The SEC is going to end up with 16 teams. So who do the Pac 12 and Big 10 pick up to keep pace. If the Big 12 becomes defunct that will likely mean that the Texas will become an Independent. Just like Notre Dame they have their own TV contract, recruiting won’t be affected right away and they have a national fan base. I think the Big Ten will still try to pick up Syracuse from the Big East. I also think Oklahoma would make sense too. (I’ve heard this rumor so why not). That means the Big 10 needs two more teams. It makes the most sense to pull from the Big 12 North. Missouri makes the most sense for the teams left in the Big 12 North, plus they already have a little rivalry with Illinois. After that I think the best option from the Big 12 might be Oklahoma St which brings one of Oklahoma’s rivals with them. It will take some realigning in the Big 10 divisions but that seems like a tough conference that could compete with the SEC any day of the week.
Now who will the Pac 12 pick up to get to 16 teams? If they take from the Big 12 Kansas and Kansas St. make a lot of sense. They also were talking about taking Texas Tech a couple years ago too. So that’s 3 teams without having to pluck from the non-BCS conferences. I also think if the Pac 12 came calling BYU would drop the Independent discussion. The Pac-12 is easy and difficult at the same time. In order to get BCS schools they have to pull from schools halfway across the country, if they stay on the West Coast they are looking at Nevada, BYU, Hawaii, and Colorado St.? There is no chance the Pac 12 picks anyone out of that foursome except BYU.
So now the SEC, Big Ten, and Pac 12 have their 16 teams. What happens to the Big East and ACC? Well there are still a couple of teams left in the Big 12, Baylor and Iowa State. Baylor makes more sense in the Big East than the ACC but only because TCU just joined them. Iowa State is the odd man out for sure though. They don’t make sense for the Big Ten because let’s be honest they are not a good football team. Outside of the interstate rivalry with Iowa they don’t bring a lot to the table. They might end up in the MAC or MWC. However bringing Baylor into the Big East doesn't finish it because there will only be 10 teams which mean they need 6 more to get to 16 teams. The other thing that the Big East needs to look at while expanding is how it will affect Basketball because they have a lot of schools that are Basketball but not football like Georgetown, Setan Hall, Villanova, etc. If the Big East goes to 16 teams then they will have to drop some of their Basketball only schools and I don’t see that happening unless a basketball school is ready for their football team to make the leap. Right now I think the only school in a position to do that is Villanova. So it’s more likely that the ACC plucks 6 teams out of the Big East. They took 3 teams a few years back when Va Tech, Boston College, and Miami from the Big East.
So I think it would make sense to bring Pitt, WVU, USF, and Connecticut. Which still leaves 2 schools to join? One question I have is can the ACC lure Kentucky and make a super basketball conference that would always compete with the Big East. If UK comes over then the ACC could also grab Louisville. This opens the door for the SEC to pick up one more school. I’m not sure that UK leaves though and geographically it doesn’t make sense to pick up Louisville or Cincinnati in the ACC and TCU and Baylor don’t make a lot of sense. This is where the expansion part gets confusing.
The one thing I am pretty sure of though is this will lead to a quasi playoff in college football. A team will need to win its Conference championship in order to compete in the National Championship game. Its fun to think about but it’s also sad to think about a lot of the tradition that I grew up with in college football will not be there anymore.
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